The Housing Recovery Is Slow Going, but Things Are Improving
There has been a flurry of media stories regarding the latest
housing data that suggest the recent momentum in the housing market has stalled
and the industry is heading toward another downturn.
Although the latest
monthly housing data showed modest declines, the less volatile quarterly data
have continued to show modest improvement. Consequently, there is plenty of
evidence for retaining a cautious optimism for a gradual recovery. While the
February new-home sales rate dipped a nominal 1.6 percent, sales are still
running 11.4 percent above their year-ago level and at the rate expected for the
slow recovery. Meanwhile, the inventory for new-homes for sale remains at an
all-time record low.
While combined U.S. housing starts lost some ground
in March, this was almost entirely due to typical month-to-month volatility on
the multifamily side. The fact is that single-family and multifamily starts and
permits were all stronger in the first quarter of 2012 than they were in the
fourth quarter of 2011, indicating that the market continues to slowly
strengthen, albeit in fits and starts.
We are also seeing the long-term
improvement in housing conditions continuing to take hold in a growing number of
local markets. The April NAHB/First American Improving Markets indicates that
101 individual metros are showing measurable and consistent signs they are
heading in the right direction.
Total job growth continues upward,
providing added consumer confidence and pushing personal income up.
No
one is anticipating that an upward path for housing will run in a straight-line
trajectory. The economy is in an uneven recovery and we can expect some
corresponding ups-and-downs in the housing market in the months
ahead.
However, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) believes
that on the whole, we can expect a slow and gradual recovery in housing starts,
home sales and the overall housing market in 2012. We will provide more details
on our perspective on national and regional housing trends at the Spring
Those who wish to register can do so by logging on to
www.nahb.org/cfw.
View this original post on NAHB’s blog,
Eye
on Housing.
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